There is no doubt in my mind that Scott Hogan will be a permanent Birmingham City player next season should Aston Villa retain their Premier League status.
The transfer fee and wage contract should be well covered by the expected summer sale of Jude Bellingham. Hogan is vital to Blues as any natural striker is to most clubs.
The question is, what do we fans really want?
Is it Villa relegated and they retain Hogan, or survive, and let this player stay at B9.
Fans I have spoken to are fairly divided and understandably so. Looking outside the box, and with a sensible head, we should all want Hogan at Blues, after waiting a long time for someone to fill the boots of Che Adams and previously that of Kevin Phillips.
The rivalry between our clubs is fierce and I cannot see it getting any less with even new generations of fans from both sides. Villa obviously have the upper hand at the moment with their Premiership spot but this is hanging by a thread with many believing they are odds on for a return to the Championship.
In any other situation, we Bluenoses would move great obstacles to get Hogan signed up and rightly so, but this scenario is so very different. What makes the case extra intriguing is the possibility that Villa might not let Hogan cross over even if they should escape relegation.
All possibilities are there. However the most logical outcome would be to see Hogan sign permanently on the back of a Villa survival or not to due to their relegation.
Not the most easiest of decisions if you are a true Bluenose.
Villa relegated my choice as I don’t think Villa will sell him to us.
I don’t think Scott Hogan has a future at Villa Park. With Wesley and Samatta they have two strikers who would be in theory very good at this level. Hogan was poor for them in the championship last time out and they don’t play a game suited to his strengths
So do they keep an unhappy player as a bit part player as he runs down his contract or cash in while they can. Their owners are business men and will make business decisions. It will not be an emotional driven one like their fans. He has had a purple patch of 10 games in 3 years while failing at 3 clubs which makes him a high risk signing. It’s quite possible that he could do a Robert Tesche and fail to reproduce the loan form if he signs permanently.
I don’t think it’s that cut and dried. The main factor will be who villa have as manager next season. If they stick with Dean Smith or similar then Hogan will probably struggle for match time as he doesn’t fit their style of play. Similarly with stoke this season and even to a degree Sheffield utd. He only managed a couple of goals in 8 appearances and that promotion winning team was nothing short of free scoring. Compare that to blues and he fits in perfectly, particularly up with Juke he’s the che adams replacement we needed in the summer. Villa know this and may possibly look to recoup some of the money spent on him. Although I don’t think blues would keep him long before a PL team came in for him. Just depends on whether he stays injury free.. On the other hand, we may succumb to beer flu and one could argue what’s the point in debating it! KRO